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This is a book is for leaders, to aid their practice in strategy,
decision making and change - it's a very practical (field) guide to
foresight and foresight tools. It's aimed at leaders in
manufacturing, service, non-profit, government and fourth sector
organisations. Strategic Foresight is a set of skills and tools
used to explore potential futures exercising your 'futures muscles'
so that you are able to plan for and take advantage of these
possible futures. The book first explores how we think about the
future, looking at ambiguity and uncertainty and how these play a
role in our ability to think into the future. It introduces a
simple model of preferred thinking styles and talks about the
'baggage' and values that form our perceptions. The next section
covers models, tools and maps that people will find useful for
developing their own Foresight and using this knowledge to make
decisions, whilst uncovering innovation and creativity to turn this
Foresight knowledge to competitive advantage. This is not a
comprehensive list - just a selection of the most effective tools
with their use and case studies that are easy and effective to use.
The next two sections cover: How to identify emerging trends; what
impact they may have on your business; the strategic importance of
early recognition; and how to apply the knowledge in your business.
Harnessing Foresight as a spring board for innovation and
creativity to develop new paradigms and take advantage of what may
come. Finally, the author pulls it all together by showing how to
develop a practical method of exploring potential futures in the
context of your existing business in order to take robust decisions
and develop strategies that help you work towards your preferred
future. Case studies are interspersed throughout the book to
illustrate the points made along with exercises, where appropriate,
to encourage people to 'think along' with the ideas and new ways of
approaching Strategic Foresight.
Here be Dragons was written in response to requests from readers of
Beyond Crisis (John Wiley, 2010), which introduced the "Cycle of
Renewal". Readers wanted to know what the Cycle of Renewal looked
like "on the ground"; how would you get started? How would you
decide which tools to use? Who would do the work? What would it
look like on a daily basis? And, most importantly, what impact
would you see on business performance? Here be Dragons addresses
these questions in two ways. The first, The Columbus Project,
describes the journey taken by a fictional organisation
(FutureParts Vehicle Supplies) which was set the challenge of
renewing itself. The staff of FutureParts are entirely fictional,
but they represent some of the characters and organisational
structures that form the context for change in many organisations.
The story illustrates some of the common hurdles and tools, so that
business leaders may recognise some of the characteristics of what
works and what does not as they spearhead organisational change.
The second part of the book is a Pilot's Guide to the tools which
the Columbus Project used to help the business renew itself. The
tools are designed to enhance the ability to think long term while
being effective in the short term - balancing the paradoxes leaders
face on a daily basis. Both parts focus pragmatically on why each
tool should be used, when and how they should be used, together
with the results to expect and how each fits into the Cycle of
Renewal.
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